Kukwera kwakukulu kwa mitengo ya mafuta komwe kudachitika chifukwa cha nkhondo ku Iran (komwe kudafika pa $100 pa mbiya mu Marichi 2026) kwakhudza kwambiri makampani opanga mafuta (makamaka bizinesi yathu yotumiza kunja kwa dziko).chonyamulira pilo): kukwera kwa mtengo, kusiyana kwa kufunikira, ndi kukakamizidwa kwa zinthu. Sizikuyenda bwino pakapita nthawi ndipo zili ndi mwayi wokonza zinthu pakati ndi nthawi yayitali.
1. Mbali ya mtengo: Kuwonjezeka mwachindunji, kuchulukitsa phindu
1. Mtengo wa mphamvu ndi mankhwala wakwera; kugwiritsa ntchito mphamvu/gasi muchogwirirakupanga (kupangira, kutentha, kupukuta) kuli kokwera; mitengo yamafuta ikukwera → mitengo yamagetsi ndi gasi imakweranso nthawi imodzi, zomwe zimapangitsa kuti ndalama zopangira mphamvu zikwere ndi 5% mpaka 12%.
Mafuta odzola, zisindikizo, ndi zopachika pulasitiki zimapangidwa mwachindunji kuchokera ku zinthu zopangidwa ndi mafuta: mitengo ya mafuta oyambira, rabala, ndi nayiloni yakwera, ndipo mtengo wotsekera ndi kudzola zinthu wakwera ndi 10% mpaka 20%.
2. Kuwonjezeka kwa zinthu zopangira (chitsulo) mosalunjika
Kusungunula chitsulo chonyamula zitsulo kumafuna mphamvu zambiri; kukwera kwa mitengo yamafuta → kukwera kwa mitengo ya alloys, chromium, molybdenum, ndi nickel → kukwera kwa mtengo wachitsulo chonyamula zitsulo ndi chitsulo chapadera.
Zipangizo zopangira zimapanga 60% kapena kuposerapo ya mtengo wa ma bearing; pa kukwera kulikonse kwa 10% kwa mitengo yachitsulo, mtengo wa ma bearing umakwera ndi 5% mpaka 8%.
3. Kukwera kwa ndalama zoyendera (dera lomwe lakhudzidwa kwambiri ndi malonda akunja)
Kukwera mwachangu kwa ndalama zowonjezera mafuta pa zotumiza ndi mayendedwe a pandege: Katundu wonyamula katundu panjira ya ku Middle East wawonjezeka ndi 30% kufika pa 80%, ndipo nthawi yotumizira katundu yawonjezeka.
Timatumiza kunja mabearing ozungulira okhala ndi mipando: Kukwera kwa ndalama zoyendetsera zinthu pamalonda odutsa malire, nthawi yotumizira yosakhazikika.
II. Mbali Yofunira: Yosiyana-siyana (Yabwino/Yoipa)
Zoyipa: Kusowa kofooka kwa ntchito yoyambira
Makina wamba, nsalu, mafakitale opepuka, makina wamba a zaulimi: Mitengo yamafuta ndi yotsika mtengo → Mtengo wamafuta ↓， maoda achepa.
Magalimoto, makina omangira otsika mtengo: Mitengo yokwera yamafuta imaletsa ndalama → Chithandizo cha mabearing cha zida zomangira chimachedwetsa liwiro.
Msika wa Middle East/Iran: Chisokonezo chilipo → Oda yaima, zovuta zosonkhanitsa, zopinga zotumizira.
Zabwino: Magawo okulirapo kwambiri
Zipangizo zamafuta (kubowola/kupanga/kunyamula mapaipi): Mitengo yamafuta yokwera → Ndalama zogwiritsidwa ntchito pachuma ↑, kufunikira kwa mabearing amakina amafuta, mabearing a mapampu amatope, mabearing a unit pumping kumawonjezeka kwambiri.
Kukumba/kupangira zitsulo/kunyamula katundu wolemera: Mitengo yamafuta → Mitengo ya mchere ↑ → Kufunika kwa makina okumba, mabearing a makina a lamba (mfundo yanu yamphamvu) ↑.
Mphamvu ya mphepo/mphamvu yatsopano: Mitengo yokwera yamafuta imakakamiza kufulumizitsa mphamvu zatsopano → Kuberekera kwa mphepo, maoda a maberekera atsopano a zida zamagetsi ↑.
Asilikali/kumanga zombo: Mikangano yandale → Mabeyala ankhondo, kufunikira kwa mabeyala a m'madzi kukuwonjezeka pang'onopang'ono.
III. Zotsatira Zapadera pa Ma Bearings a Self-Braceball (Chogulitsa Chanu Chachikulu)
Mtengo: Chitsulo + kutseka + mafuta + mphamvu + zinthu zonse zikukwera, mtengo wa fakitale ukukwera ndi 5% mpaka 12%.
Kufunika
Kufunika kwakukulu: Makina a lamba wa migodi, zida zamafuta, makina azolimo olemera, ma turbine amphepo (ntchito yanu yabwino).
Kufunika kofooka: Makina a chakudya, nsalu wamba, mayendedwe amakampani opepuka (otsika mtengo). Malonda akunja
Europe/North America: Kukwera kwa mitengo → Kukambirana kumakhala kovuta, nthawi yolipira imatalikitsidwa.
Middle East: Kuyimitsidwa kwa maoda, kusokonezeka kwa kayendedwe ka zinthu, zoopsa zosonkhanitsa katundu.
ASEAN/Russia/Central Asia: Ndi otetezeka pang'ono, amatha kusamutsa maoda. Mpikisano
Mafakitale ang'onoang'ono ndi apakatikati: Sangathe kupirira ndalama → kuchepetsa kupanga/kutuluka.
Mafakitale akuluakulu: Ali ndi kuthekera kopereka ndalama → kuwonjezera gawo la msika.
IV. Njira zomwe fakitale yogulitsa zinthu zakunja ya 2026 ingagwiritse ntchito
1. Kuwongolera mtengo
Pangani mapangano a nthawi yayitali ndikutseka mitengo ndi opanga zitsulo/ogulitsa mankhwala.
Kusunga mphamvu mu njira: kuchepetsa kugwiritsa ntchito mphamvu pochiza/kugaya kutentha, gwiritsani ntchito mafuta opaka mafuta ochepa.
Konzani bwino ma phukusi/kuphatikiza: chepetsani ndalama zoyendetsera zinthu.
2. Zogulitsa ndi Mitengo
Ikani patsogolo kupereka zinthu kumadera omwe ali ndi zinthu zambiri monga migodi/mafuta/mafani/makina a ulimi olemera.
Pang'onopang'ono sinthani mitengo m'magulu (5% - 8%), ndi mafotokozedwe a mtengo.
Yambitsani zisindikizo zotsika mtengo/mamodeli osavuta kuti akwaniritse zosowa za makasitomala omwe amasamala kwambiri mitengo.
3. Msika & Maoda
Kuchepa kwa misika yomwe ili pachiwopsezo chachikulu ku Middle East, kusuntha maoda kupita ku ASEAN, Russia, Central Asia, ndi Latin America.
Perekani kuchotsera pang'ono kwa makasitomala a nthawi yayitali kuti mutseke maoda ndikukhazikitsa bwino ndalama zomwe mumapeza.
Wonjezerani zida zamafuta, makina osungira migodi mpaka makasitomala.
4. Kuteteza Ziwopsezo
Kugwirizana kwa mtengo wa oda/malinga ndi kusinthana kwa ndalama zakunja.
Njira zingapo zotumizira ngati njira zina, kusungitsa pasadakhale.
Onjezani pang'ono zinthu zomwe zimagwiritsidwa ntchito kwambiri kuti mupewe kusokonezeka kwa zinthu.
V. Chidule (chiganizo chimodzi)
Kukwera kwa mtengo kwakanthawi kochepa, kupanikizika kwa phindu, zoopsa ku Middle East; nthawi yapakati komanso yayitali yabwino kwa mafuta/migodi/mabearings olemera (mphamvu yanu pamalo ozungulira opanda hubless), kufulumizitsa kuphatikizana kwa mafakitale, ndi osewera amphamvu akuwonjezera gawo lawo pamsika.